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Moody’s forecasts steady growth for Asia’s gaming market through 2027

(Macau).- The ratings agency expects regional GGR to increase by 5%–6% over the next 12 to 18 months, with Macau leading growth while Southeast Asian markets face pressure from higher energy costs and softer tourism demand.

Por GGR Asia

Monday 06 July

Moody’s forecasts steady growth for Asia’s gaming market through 2027. (Macau).- The ratings agency expects regional GGR to increase by 5%–6% over the next 12 to 18 months, with Macau leading growth while Southeast Asian markets face pressure from higher energy costs and softer tourism demand.. Macau to remain the regional growth engineMoody’s Ratings expects Macau to outperform other Asian gaming markets, forecasting gross gaming revenue (GGR) growth of 6% in 2026 and 4%–5% in 2027. The agency said mainland Chinese demand for short-haul travel, combined with more rational competition, new property openings and ongoing resort upgrades, will continue to support the market's recovery.Southeast Asia to post slower gainsThe report predicts only low single-digit gaming revenue growth across Southeast Asia, as operators remain more exposed to higher fuel prices due to their dependence on air travel. Rising operating costs are also expected to weigh on profitability in markets such as Malaysia and Singapore.EBITDA expected to improve across most operatorsMoody’s forecasts Macau's combined annual EBITDA will rise by 6%–7% in 2026 to between US$8.6 billion and US$8.7 billion, supported by moderate GGR growth, disciplined reinvestment and tighter cost controls. Genting Malaysia is expected to benefit from its New York expansion, while Genting Singapore faces short-term earnings pressure before a modest recovery in 2027.Leverage trends differ across the regionAccording to Moody’s, most Macau operators will continue reducing leverage through EBITDA growth, although capital expenditure and shareholder returns will limit free cash flow. In Southeast Asia, Genting is expected to maintain relatively high leverage because of ongoing investments, while NagaCorp is projected to retain a very low leverage profile.Low refinancing risk remains a positive factorDespite differences in market performance, Moody’s believes Asia's casino industry faces limited refinancing risk over the next 18 months, supported by strong liquidity and favorable credit market conditions. The agency also noted that Macau operators' major bond maturities are concentrated in 2028 and 2029, giving the sector sufficient time to manage future refinancing needs.

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Macau to remain the regional growth engine

Moody’s Ratings expects Macau to outperform other Asian gaming markets, forecasting gross gaming revenue (GGR) growth of 6% in 2026 and 4%–5% in 2027. The agency said mainland Chinese demand for short-haul travel, combined with more rational competition, new property openings and ongoing resort upgrades, will continue to support the market's recovery.

Southeast Asia to post slower gains

The report predicts only low single-digit gaming revenue growth across Southeast Asia, as operators remain more exposed to higher fuel prices due to their dependence on air travel. Rising operating costs are also expected to weigh on profitability in markets such as Malaysia and Singapore.

EBITDA expected to improve across most operators

Moody’s forecasts Macau's combined annual EBITDA will rise by 6%–7% in 2026 to between US$8.6 billion and US$8.7 billion, supported by moderate GGR growth, disciplined reinvestment and tighter cost controls. Genting Malaysia is expected to benefit from its New York expansion, while Genting Singapore faces short-term earnings pressure before a modest recovery in 2027.

Leverage trends differ across the region

According to Moody’s, most Macau operators will continue reducing leverage through EBITDA growth, although capital expenditure and shareholder returns will limit free cash flow. In Southeast Asia, Genting is expected to maintain relatively high leverage because of ongoing investments, while NagaCorp is projected to retain a very low leverage profile.

Low refinancing risk remains a positive factor

Despite differences in market performance, Moody’s believes Asia's casino industry faces limited refinancing risk over the next 18 months, supported by strong liquidity and favorable credit market conditions. The agency also noted that Macau operators' major bond maturities are concentrated in 2028 and 2029, giving the sector sufficient time to manage future refinancing needs.

Fuente original: GGR Asia